Get luckier by developing your decision-making process

I’ve been thinking a lot about how we judge decisions at work and in life. We hire people hoping they’ll become key players in the future. We invest in financial assets expecting they’ll give us returns in retirement. We choose a partner hoping the relationship will last. We switch jobs expecting the grass will be greener. And then, almost without thinking, we judge the decision by the outcome.

That’s outcome bias: it celebrates luck and punishes careful decision-making.

If the link between decisions and outcomes were always 1:1, life would be simple. A good decision would always lead to a good result. But we know that’s not how it works. The odds don’t always play in our favor. A solid decision can still lead to a bad outcome. A weak decision can still get lucky and look like brilliance.

The decision-making process is about how people use the data they have, what blind spots they might miss, how values and emotions shape their thinking, and, finally, how they translate their choice into action.

Understanding this changes how you see people. You become more empathetic. You focus on their process and treat outcomes as lessons, not reasons to blame.

If a weak process produces a good outcome, that’s okay. Over time, the house always wins, and weak decisions eventually catch up.

Reward strong decision-making at home or at work, and you build a culture that gets luckier.